The 2012 Gujarat assembly elections results assumes much significance as the results will have an impact ion Lok sabha 2014 elections . Gujarat elections were the most widely watched elections in the country and world over with money worth Rs 5,000 crore already been placed in the betting market.
On the contrary e exit polls and post-poll surveys have predicted a landslide victory for Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi.
The bookmakers offer Rs 40 for every Rs 100 bet if the BJP gets 90 to 100 seats. Profits get higher, upto Rs 350 for every Rs 100 rupee bet on BJP getting more than 120 seats. For the Congress, bookies are citing Rs 30 on every Rs 100 rupee if the party wins 50 seats.
The higher the payout promised to the punter, the bigger the bookie's confidence that his own prediction - in this case, the BJP will not hit or cross 100 seats - has a better chance than the punter's.
The punters will pay 250 paise (per 100 paise) if the BJP wins more than 120 seats, which bookies now consider a fairly low probability outcome. Six days ago, the rate was 120-123 paise bet on BJP wining 100 seats .
The current odds for BJP getting 110 seats have also lengthened. Earlier, punters were offer 145 paise payout for 100 paise bet. Now, they are getting 156 paise for a 100 paise punt on BJP hitting 110.
However, the bookies have not altered the 500 paise reward for the Congress winning more than 65 seats - the least likely outcome from the point of view of the betting market.
The unusually high voter turnout in the elections has put Chief Minister Narendra Modi at odds in the Gujarat assembly elections as punters believes that the chief minister is unlikely to score a 'big' victory as predicted by the pollsters.
On the other Hand , Modi who has wants to make a formal transition from a state leader to national leader while his popularity as a symbol of development is world wide known.
In the 2007 state elections, the Modi-led BJP had won 117 seats. The future of Modi's career at the national level depends on bettering that performance, or at least not doing worse than 2007.
But any downward trend in the number of seats will dampen his credibility in the party.
The underground betting markert in Ahmedabad is buzzing with activity, and it places Chief Minister Narendra Modi as a front runner in the race. While Modi may be a clear favourite with the bookmakers, the rebels, led by Gujarat Parivartan Party chief Keshubhai Patel have suddenly emerged on the radar after the first phase.
Four exit poll results surveys BJP is expected to bag 118-140 seats in Gujarat while Congress estimated tally ranges between 40-58 in 182-member house.
Cvoter exit poll results:
ABP News-Nielsen exit poll results:
News 24-Chanakya Exit poll results:
Modi have been winning elections since 2002 and Gujarat has turned electoral politics into developmental politics. People will vote us to power again this year.”
“Gujarat in 1974 launched a campaign against corruption and toppled the (then) Congress government. There is no place for corruption in Gujarat,” he said.